Revenue and earnings forecast
Excerpts from Deutsche Post AG's 2012 Group Annual Report.
Expectations regarding how the global economy will perform in 2013 remain cautious and at the lower end of the long-term trend. As in the previous year, the economy is likely to grow by approximately 3%. As opposed to 2012, however, momentum should pick up as the year progresses. The global trading volumes relevant to our business are expected to perform similarly. We are therefore anticipating a corresponding revenue trend, with increasing revenue, particularly in the DHL divisions.
Against this backdrop, we expect consolidated EBIT to reach between €2.7 billion and €2.95 billion in financial year 2013. The MAIL division is likely to contribute between €1.1 billion and €1.2 billion to this figure. Compared with the previous year, we expect an additional improvement in overall earnings to between €2.0 billion and €2.15 billion in the DHL divisions. At around €–0.4 billion, the Corporate Center/Other result should be on par with the previous year.
In 2013, we plan to invest a maximum of €1.8 billion. In the coming years, we expect this figure to fall back to a normal level. In line with our Group strategy, we are targeting organic growth and anticipate only a few small acquisitions in 2013, as in the previous year. In 2013, operating cash flow will recover from the one-time charges in the reporting year and benefit from the expected earnings improvement.
Even in the face of an uncertain economic climate, particularly in the western economies, we believe that the Group will experience good earnings momentum. We expect a similarly positive business trend in 2014 as another step towards the earnings targets we defined for 2015. The cost reduction measures and growth programmes initiated in the MAIL division are expected to keep EBIT stable at €1 billion at the least, even though letter volumes are likely to continue their slow decline due to electronic substitution. In the DHL divisions, we expect EBIT, taking the earnings contribution in 2010 as the baseline, to improve at an annual average of 13% to 15% in the period from 2011 to 2015 as trading volumes continue to recover.
Our finance strategy calls for paying out 40% to 60% of net profits as dividends as a general rule. At the Annual General Meeting on 29 May 2013, we intend to propose to the shareholders that a dividend per share of €0.70 be paid for financial year 2012 (previous year: €0.70).